Last Updated: February 6th
At long last we’re lastly here– the Oscar elections have actually been revealed. This was a quite extreme race over the last couple of months, as early forecasts had Denis Villeneuve possibly making it for Blade Runner 2049, Steven Spielberg was quite in the mix for The Post, Martin McDonagh was pegged as a spoiler for Three Billboards and there was buzz around whether fairly beginners Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig would really make it to the Oscar table.
All has actually been exposed, and undoubtedly Peele and Gerwig scored Oscar elections for Get Out and Lady Bird respectively, together with fellow candidates Christopher Nolan( Dunkirk), Guillermo del Toro( The Shape of Water), and Paul Thomas Anderson( Phantom Thread). The latter was the most unexpected candidate of the lot, as Anderson didn’t make it for the Directors Guild of America Awards elections and Phantom Thread seemed rather DOA with the Academy at big. That plainly wasn’t the case when Oscar elections were revealed, as the movie got Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, and Score elections in addition to Best Director.
So with the candidates exposed, where does Best Director stand heading to the Oscar event? Well unlike some other classifications, there is a really clear frontrunner here. Guillermo del Toro has actually gotten a bunch of prizes over the last number of months for his unbelievable work bringing The Shape of Water to life, and he won the DGA award just recently, strengthening his frontrunner status. In the 69 years of the DGA Awards’ presence, the DGA winner has actually gone on to win the Oscar 61 times. The times when the DGA and Oscar winners didn’t compare were quirks, like when Ben Affleck( Argo), Ron Howard( Apollo 13), and Steven Spielberg ( The Color Purple) won the DGA however weren’t even chosen for the Oscar.
So yeah, it is a really winner that Guillermo del Toro will win the Oscar for Best Director today, which would finish the “Three Amigos” trifecta as he follows in the steps of Oscar winners Alfonso Cuaron( Gravity) and Alejandro G. Inarritu( Birdman, The Revenant). The 3 Mexican filmmakers developed their craft together as young growing directors in Mexico and have actually often provided notes on each other’s work throughout the years, so it’s sort of a lovely thing that these 3 visionary directors would all go on to make the leading reward in their craft.
But after in 2015’s La La Land surprise I expect anything is possible, so listed below I’ve ranked the very best Director candidates in order of probability to win the leading reward. Nolan is most likely the most significant danger here, and I might visualize a situation where he comes away with the win. Dunkirk likewise marks Nolan’s first-ever Best Director Oscar election, so if it took the Academy this long to acknowledge the filmmaker for his work, could he actually come away with the win?
When the Oscars air live on ABC on March 4th,
We’ll discover out. In the meantime, take a look at my Best Director forecasts listed below.Related youtube video: (not from post)